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N° 2008 – 28 Décembre 2008 Commerce international et transports : tendances du

N° 2008 – 28 Décembre 2008 Commerce international et transports : tendances du passé et prospective 2020 _____________ Christophe Gouel, Nina Kousnetzoff & Hassan Salman Commerce international et transports : tendances du passé et prospective 2020 _____________ Christophe Gouel, Nina Kousnetzoff & Hassan Salman N° 2008 – 28 Décembre 2008 Commerce international et transports : tendances du passé et prospective 2020 3 TABLE DES MATIÈRES NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 4 ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. 5 RÉSUMÉ NON TECHNIQUE ..................................................................................................... 6 RÉSUMÉ COURT ..................................................................................................................... 7 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 8 2. IMPACT DU COÛT DE TRANSPORT SUR LE COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL : DIFFICULTÉS DE MESURE ................................................................................................. 9 Les coûts de transport, barrière aux échanges ...................................................... 10 Déterminants des coûts de transport ..................................................................... 10 Mesure des coûts de transport international ......................................................... 12 Coûts de transport et commerce ........................................................................... 12 Mode de croissance du commerce extérieur ......................................................... 13 3. LE DÉVELOPPEMENT DES TRANSPORTS DEPUIS QUARANTE ANS .................................. 15 3.1. Progrès technique des transports et développement du trafic ................................ 16 3.1.1. Un réseau de plus en plus intégré ................................................................ 16 3.1.2. Transport maritime ...................................................................................... 17 3.1.3. Transport aérien ........................................................................................... 24 3.2. Baisse des coûts de transport ? ................................................................................ 27 Coût du fret ad valorem moyen ............................................................................ 28 Évolution réelle du coût du fret ad valorem ......................................................... 29 Coûts et tarifs du fret ............................................................................................ 30 4. PERSPECTIVES : EFFETS SUR LE COMMERCE ET LA CROISSANCE D’UNE TAXATION ENVIRONNEMENTALE DES TRANSPORTS INTERNATIONAUX ....................... 33 Taxation des importations sur le contenu en carbone du fret ............................... 37 Taxation carbone des émissions liées aux intrants des secteurs transport ............ 37 5. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................. 42 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 44 LISTE DES DOCUMENTS DE TRAVAIL DU CEPII ................................................................. 47 CEPII, Document de travail n°2008-28 4 INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION: PAST TRENDS AND PROSPECTS UP TO 2020 NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY Have transportation costs played a key part in the growth of world trade for the past 30 years, and therefore, in the new wave of globalization? Is there a risk that an increase in the transportation costs during the next 20 years – due to carbon taxes and the rise in oil prices – will reduce world trade expansion and economic growth? This paper reviews past trends in international freight transportation and their impact on the growth of world trade; then it provides estimates of the impact of carbon taxes on transportation. The first section explains why transportation costs are difficult to measure and how their impact on international trade is estimated. The second section describes the growth of international freight transportation over the last 40 years. In the third section, we use the MIRAGE general equilibrium model to predict the impact on world trade and world growth of carbon taxes on transportation. Section 1 shows how the difficulties which arise when identifying and measuring transportation costs generate uncertainty in the predictions of the impact of these costs on trade. Firstly, the effects of changes in transportation costs and in other barriers to trade must be successfully disentangled from one another. Secondly, variations in the transportation price must be balanced with the quality of the service (speed and security). Thirdly, fixed costs and economies of scale make it difficult to appreciate the impact of distance on transportation costs. Lastly, available data for the identification of these various effects are often incomplete and not detailed enough. The data source is either carrier companies, or the customs administrations. The customs data provide ad valorem freight rates, which are the most commonly used indicators for transportation costs. Measuring the effect of transportation costs on trade draws on either geographical or chronological differences. The effect of transportation cost differences between countries are usually estimated indirectly, in the framework of gravity trade models; these methods may overestimate the transport cost effect, as they may not distinguish it perfectly from other effects of distance between countries. Evaluations based on variations of the transportation costs through time evidence quite small effects on trade over the past 40 years. Section 2 brings together the main data showing the development of international transportation for the last 40 years. A number of innovations and their wide spread during the second half of the 20th century, enabled to increase speed and transported volumes per travel. Prominent examples are mass air transportation, or global management of integrated intermodal traffic nets thanks to new information and communication technologies. The data show that over the last 25 years, these innovations were of concern mainly for transportation of the manufactured goods. Bringing together all available data concerning the evolution of transportation prices, it follows that the decrease in freight rates is mainly Commerce international et transports : tendances du passé et prospective 2020 5 due to the increase in the prices of transported goods. Actually, there has not been a general decrease in transportation tariffs over these years. But it can be argued that the substantial upgrading of the quality of transportation services, regarding speed and security, is equivalent to a price decrease. In parallel, a large part of freight transportation has become more intensive in energy, and consequently fuel prices represent a growing part of transportation costs. Section 3 considers the sustainability up to 2020 of energy intensive international transportation, with the assumption of more active policies to tackle climate change. We represent the green house gases emissions mitigating policies in transportation by two alternative carbon taxes: a tax on imports based on the estimated CO2 emissions of the international part of freight transportation only; and a tax on the CO2 emissions of the whole transport sector, passenger and freight, domestic and international, including emissions from the production of inputs used in the transport industry. We provide evidence of the impacts of these alternative carbon taxes by using a customized version of the MIRAGE general equilibrium model. At the tax rates of $25 or $50 per ton of CO2, the impact is small. ABSTRACT Consumers are gradually going to have to pay, within the framework of international agreements on climate change mitigation, for the environmental cost of CO2 emissions caused by international transportation. The resulting increase in transportation costs will magnify the impact of the upward trend in oil prices. In such a context, this paper reviews past trends in international freight transportation and their impact on the growth of world trade; then it provides estimates of the impact of carbon taxes on transportation. The first section lists the difficulties arising in measuring transportation costs and their impact on international trade. The second section describes the growth of international freight transportation over the last 40 years. The third section provides estimates of the impact of carbon taxes on transportation obtained by using the MIRAGE general equilibrium model. We consider two taxation cases and two levels of taxes ($25 and $50 per ton of CO2). In both cases, by 2020, the result shows that a carbon tax on transportation will have a stronger negative effect on world trade than on GDP growth. Nonetheless these impacts remain small with these rates of taxation. Classification JEL: D58, F12, H23 Keywords: International freight transportation, transportation costs, international trade, carbon tax, MIRAGE, Computable General Equilibrium Model. CEPII, Document de travail n°2008-28 6 COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL ET TRANSPORTS : TENDANCES DU PASSÉ ET PROSPECTIVE 2020 RÉSUMÉ NON TECHNIQUE Les coûts des transports ont-ils joué un rôle clef dans le développement du commerce international depuis 30 ans, et partant, dans la nouvelle vague de mondialisation ? Une augmentation des coûts des transports dans les 20 prochaines années, due à la taxation des émissions de carbone qui s’ajouterait à la hausse du prix du pétrole, risque-t-elle de limiter l’expansion du commerce et la croissance économique ? La présente étude fait le point sur l’évolution passée des transports internationaux de marchandises et sur son lien avec la croissance du commerce, avant de simuler l’impact d’une taxation du carbone appliquée aux transports. La première partie rappelle pourquoi les coûts de transport sont difficiles à mesurer et comment est estimé leur impact sur le commerce international. La deuxième partie décrit le développement du transport international de marchandises depuis 40 ans. Enfin, dans la troisième partie, le modèle d’équilibre général MIRAGE est utilisé pour simuler l’effet sur le commerce et la croissance mondiale d’une taxation du CO2 émis par les transports. La première partie montre comment les difficultés d’identification et de mesure des coûts de transport introduisent des incertitudes dans l’évaluation de leur impact sur le commerce. Il faut tout d’abord parvenir à distinguer l’effet des coûts de transport de celui des autres barrières aux échanges. Il faut ensuite tenter de mesurer la variation du prix du transport à qualité égale de service (vitesse et sécurité). Enfin, les coûts fixes et les économies d’échelle rendent difficile l’appréhension de l’effet de la distance sur le coût de transport. Les données disponibles pour identifier ces divers effets sont lacunaires et souvent trop agrégées. Elles proviennent soit des transporteurs, soit des services de douane ; ces dernières permettent de calculer des taux de fret ad valorem, qui constituent l’indicateur de coût de transport le plus souvent utilisé. uploads/Geographie/ commerce-international-et-transport-tendance-et-prospective-2020-pdf.pdf