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Globalcollapse imminent See discussions stats and author pro ?les for this publication at https www researchgate net publication Is Global Collapse Imminent An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data Technical Report August CITATIO

See discussions stats and author pro ?les for this publication at https www researchgate net publication Is Global Collapse Imminent An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data Technical Report August CITATIONS author Graham Turner University of Melbourne PUBLICATIONS CITATIONS SEE PROFILE READS All content following this page was uploaded by Graham Turner on November The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded ?le Is Global Collapse Imminent An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data Research Paper No August About MSSI Research Papers MSSI ? s Research Papers Series is a key communication initiative of the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute aimed at stimulating thought and discussion within the University of Melbourne and broader community and showcasing the scholarship of MSSI Editor Dr Lauren Rickards Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute Lauren Rickards unimelb edu au Author Dr Graham M Turner is a Principal Research Fellow at the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute University of Melbourne Australia Acknowledgments This Paper draws substantially on the following publication with additional material incorporated Turner G On the cusp of global collapse Updated comparison of the Limits to Growth with historical data GAiA pp - Citing this report Please cite this paper as Turner G ? Is Global Collapse Imminent ? MSSI Research Paper No Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute The University of Melbourne ISBN Abstract The Limits to Growth ??standard run ? or business-as-usual BAU scenario produced about forty years ago aligns well with historical data that has been updated in this paper The BAU scenario results in collapse of the global economy and environment where standards of living fall at rates faster than they have historically risen due to disruption of normal economic functions subsequently forcing population down Although the modelled fall in population occurs after about ??with death rates rising from onward reversing contemporary trends ??the general onset of collapse ?rst appears at about when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline Given this imminent timing a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic di ?culties of the global ?nancial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth BAU scenario In particular contemporary peak oil issues and analysis of net energy or energy return on energy invested support the Limits to Growth modelling of resource constraints underlying the collapse Checking on the Limits to Growth With over forty years of hindsight available since The Limits to Growth LTG was ?rst published Meadows et al Meadows et al it is timely to review how society is tracking relative to their ground-breaking modelling of scenarios and to consider whether the global economy and population is on a path of sustainability or collapse Over a similar timeframe international e ?orts based around a series of United Nations UN conferences have yielded mixed results at best Linner and Selin Meadowcroft In addition to unresolved critical environmental issues and resource constraints such as anthropogenic climate change and peak oil the global economy is also beset